What If We Redid the 2018 NBA Draft: Winners and Losers Revealed

2025-11-21 11:00

Looking back at the 2018 NBA Draft, I can’t help but wonder how different the league would look today if we had a chance to redo it with the benefit of hindsight. As someone who’s followed basketball closely for years—both as a fan and an analyst—I’ve always been fascinated by how draft classes evolve. Some players exceed expectations dramatically, while others fade into obscurity. It’s a high-stakes game of projection, and the 2018 class has turned out to be one of the most intriguing in recent memory. If we were to redraft based on what we know now, several franchises would be kicking themselves, while others would be celebrating their newfound fortune.

Let’s start with the obvious: Luka Dončić. Back in 2018, the Slovenian sensation went third overall to the Atlanta Hawks, who immediately traded him to Dallas. Now, if we’re being honest, he should have been the undisputed number one pick. I remember watching his EuroLeague performances and thinking, "This guy is special," but even I didn’t anticipate he’d become a perennial MVP candidate so quickly. In a redraft, the Phoenix Suns—who picked Deandre Ayton first—would almost certainly take Dončić. Ayton’s a solid big man, no doubt, averaging around 17 points and 10 rebounds per game, but Dončić? He’s a generational talent who’s already racked up multiple All-NBA First Team selections and led the Mavericks deep into the playoffs. The Suns missed out on a franchise-altering player, and that’s a mistake that would haunt them in this hypothetical scenario.

Then there’s Trae Young, who went fifth to the Dallas Mavericks before being traded for Dončić. In a redraft, I’d slot him in the top three, maybe even second after Dončić. Young’s offensive firepower is undeniable—he’s averaged over 25 points and 9 assists per game in his career—and he’s transformed the Atlanta Hawks into a playoff contender. But here’s where it gets interesting: players like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who was picked 11th by the Charlotte Hornets, would shoot up the board. SGA has blossomed into a star with the Oklahoma City Thunder, putting up numbers like 31 points, 5 rebounds, and 6 assists per game last season. If teams knew then what we know now, he’d easily be a top-five pick, and the Hornets would probably regret passing on him for Miles Bridges, who’s had his own ups and downs.

On the flip side, some players who were highly touted have fallen short. Marvin Bagley III, selected second by the Sacramento Kings, comes to mind. He’s shown flashes of potential, like his 14 points and 7 rebounds per game averages, but injuries and fit issues have limited his impact. In a redraft, he might slip to the late lottery or even further. Similarly, Mo Bamba, picked sixth by the Orlando Magic, hasn’t lived up to the hype despite his defensive tools. He’s averaged around 7 points and 6 rebounds—decent, but not what you’d expect from a top-10 pick. As an analyst, I’ve seen how these misses can set a franchise back years, and it’s a stark reminder of the draft’s unpredictability.

Now, let’s tie this into the broader context of player development, drawing from that reference about Robles posting the third triple-double of the preseason tournament with 23 points, 15 digs, and 10 receptions. While that’s from a different sport—volleyball, I believe—it highlights how performance in high-pressure settings can reveal a player’s true potential. In the NBA, we see similar breakouts in summer league or preseason games that hint at future stars. For instance, Jalen Brunson, who was picked 33rd in 2018, used his college and early NBA performances to climb the ranks; now, he’s a key player for the New York Knicks, averaging over 20 points per game. If teams had paid more attention to these indicators, they might have grabbed him earlier. Personally, I love seeing underdogs like Brunson succeed—it’s what makes sports so compelling.

But it’s not just about the stars; role players matter too. In a redraft, guys like Mitchell Robinson (picked 36th) or Gary Trent Jr. (picked 37th) would move up significantly. Robinson’s shot-blocking and rebounding—averaging about 8 points and 8 rebounds with 2 blocks per game—make him a valuable center, while Trent’s three-point shooting (around 18 points per game) is a commodity in today’s NBA. I’ve always argued that championship teams are built on these kinds of picks, not just the flashy top selections. If the Golden State Warriors, for example, had snagged Robinson instead of Jacob Evans (picked 28th), their frontcourt depth would be much stronger today.

As we wrap this up, it’s clear that redrafting the 2018 NBA Draft would reshuffle the league in dramatic ways. Winners like the Dallas Mavericks, who ended up with Dončić, would still come out on top, but losers like the Sacramento Kings or Orlando Magic would have a chance to correct their mistakes. From my perspective, the biggest lesson here is that scouting needs to blend analytics with intangibles—things like work ethic and clutch performance, much like Robles’ triple-double showed in that preseason tournament. Ultimately, the 2018 class reminds us that the draft is an imperfect science, but that’s what keeps us coming back for more. If I were a GM, I’d be poring over every detail, because as history shows, one pick can change everything.